“If you can look into the seeds of time and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then to me...” —Shakespeare (Macbeth)

As Shakespeare once noted, the future is uncertain. This is the most well-known paradigm in the world of futurism. The uncertainty is the real source of confusion over the future. The confusions are not just limited to the future alone; rather they can be recognized in different aspects of foresight knowledge and activity including goals, roles, methods and results.

Even the foresight experts find it sometimes difficult to differentiate imagined, possible, plausible, surprising, preferred and planned futures from each other. Different definitions of trend, scenario, forecast, foresight, vision and discontinuity may lead our clients to some sorts of confusion, especially in their analyses. Usually the confusions are not explored and future plans based on confusions can be harmful.

Using different definitions in whatever we take in our thinking and speaking about the future produces conflicts in our audiences’ minds. The futurists are sometimes blamed for making statements that are understood as forecasts with no defined orientation, although most of these are simple facts on possible, plausible or surprising futures with no claim to be forecasts. Then the people may turn away dissatisfied and prefer to do their jobs without the futurists’ recommendations.

Sometimes futures research methods are used in an improper manner especially when a foresight practitioner does not differentiate correctly the type of future that is suited to the project. The reality is that scenarios or Delphi analyses are not always appropriate solutions for our problems. Limiting views on foresight methods makes the benefits of other methods and techniques remain hidden and therefore many never discover the merits of futures research and futures studies.

How should we deal with such chaotic situation that has embraced different aspects of futuring? The vast reaches and mysteries of the future seem to extend to infinity, challenging our intellect and expanding our consciousness and imagination. Contrary to the stereotype of the wise person having all the answers, a wise futurist acknowledges the confusion and is actually curious, non-authoritarian, aware of his or her limitations, filled with questions, and consequently active in the pursuit of new knowledge. Dealing with confusions in an uncertain world requires considering three key imperatives seriously:

1.  The futurists should develop a new dynamic approach to strategy formulation - collaborative, drawing on key signals from all quarters, and constantly evolving in the light of new circumstances.

2.  They should seek to build resilience and flexibility into the very fabric of the organizations, by suggesting new ways to develop a set of core capabilities.

3.  Corporations who succeed in the future will be those whose leaders remain steadfast in the face of uncertainty, and who have the qualities to manage confusion effectively.

By bringing these imperatives into our consideration we may be able to manage confusions over different aspects of futuring.