1. Environmental Scanning
2. Scenario
Planning
3. Delphi Method
4. Cross-impact
Analysis
5. Trend Analysis
6. Simulation and
Modeling
7. Visioning
8. Futures
Workshops
9. Causal Layered
Analysis (CLA)
10. Back-view
mirror Analysis
11. Futures
Biographies
12. Monitoring
13. Content
Analysis
14. Backcasting
15. Relevance Tree
16. Morphological
Analysis
17. Futures Wheel
1. Environmental Scanning
Environmental scanning is usually employed at the start of a futures
project. It aims at a broad exploration of all major trends, issues,
advancements, events and ideas across a wide range of activities.
Information is collected from many different sources, such as
newspapers, magazines, Internet, television, conferences, reports,
including science-fiction books. It is used to build up the
knowledge required to analyze various aspects of the project and to
decide on the key issues to be examined. When using the method, it
is important constantly to update the information, so that any of
the weak signals cannot be overlooked Four types of indicators can
be examined in the process of environmental scanning:
lone signals
(individual factors that might indicate change);
landmark events (in
various areas of life);
forecasts of experts; and
statistical descriptions
(to portray development of elements of the study).
2. Scenario Planning
Scenarios
are one of the most popular and persuasive methods used in Futures
Studies. Government planners, corporate strategists and military
analysts use them in order to aid decision-making. Scenario is “a
rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world, one
sufficiently vivid that a planner can clearly see and comprehend the
problems, challenges and opportunities that such an environment
would present.” (The Futures Group 1994)
A scenario is not a specific forecast of the future, but a plausible
description of what might happen. Scenarios are like stories built
around carefully constructed plots based on trends and events. They
assist in the selection of strategies, identification of possible
futures, making people aware of uncertainties and opening up their
imagination and initiating learning processes.
The number of people applying the scenario technique is quite large.
A range of various processes can be found under the ‘scenario
method’ name. They vary from simplistic to complex, from
quantitative to qualitative. These procedures have many similarities
as well as they can have unique features and differences in
terminology. The Futures Academy uses scenarios within its own
methodology Prospective Through Scenarios approach [link to the
section describing the methodology].
One of the key strengths of the scenario process is its influence on
the way of thinking of its participants. A mindset, in which the
focus is placed on one possible future, is altered towards the
balanced thinking about a number of possible alternative futures.
Although it is a very rewarding method it is also very demanding.
3. Delphi Method
The
Delphi method is another very popular technique used in Futures
Studies. It was developed by Gordon and Helmer in 1953 at RAND. It
can be described as a method for facilitating a group communication
process, so that the process is effective in enabling a group of
individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. It uses a
panel of experts to assess the timing, probability, significance and
implications of factors, trends and events in the relation to the
problem being considered.
Studies employing Delphi method are quite difficult to perform. Its
application requires a great deal of attention being given to the
selection of participating experts; the questionnaires have to be
scrupulously prepared and tested in advance; and it is extremely
time consuming. Delphi’s primary strength is its ability to explore,
in a detached manner and objectively, issues that require judgment.
Its main weakness is that it can be easily substituted with other,
more easily applicable techniques.
4. Cross-impact Analysis
The
method was developed by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer in 1966 in
an attempt to answer the question of how perceptions of future
events may interact with each other can be used in forecasting. As
it is well known, most events and trends are interdependent in some
way. Cross-impact analysis provides an analytical approach to the
probabilities of an element in a forecasted set, and it helps to
assess probabilities in view of judgments about potential
interactions between those elements.
The technique can be used by individuals and groups at an elementary
qualitative level, and it can also be employed to perform more
complicated and intensive quantitative analysis. One of its
strengths is that it forces attention towards ‘chains of causality:
x affects
y;
y affects
z’. Conversely, it
can be very fatiguing and monotonous.
5. Trend Analysis
Trend
analysis is one of the most often used methods in forecasting. It
aims to observe and register the past performance of a certain
factor and project it into the future. It involves the analysis of
two groups of trends: quantitative, mainly based on statistical
data; and qualitative, these are largely concerned with social,
institutional, organizational and political patterns.
In the quantitative trend analysis, data is plotted along a time
axis, so that a simple curve can be established. Short-term
forecasting seems quite simple; it becomes more complex when the
trend is extrapolated further into the future, as the number of
dynamic forces that can change the direction of the trend increases.
This form of simple trend extrapolation helps to direct attention
towards the forces, which can change the projected pattern. A more
elaborate curve that uses times series analysis can often reveal
surprising historical and current data patterns. Qualitative trend
analysis is one of the most demanding and creative methods in
Futures Studies. As trends are never self-explanatory, the
identification and description of patterns is partly empirical and
partly creative activity. The most challenging part of qualitative
trends analysis is the identification of a tendency early, as
recognition of a mature trend is ‘relatively useless’ in influencing
behavior.
6. Simulation and Modeling
Simulation and modeling are computer-based tools developed to
represent reality. They are widely used to analyze behaviors and to
understand processes. Models allow demonstration of past changes as
well as the examination of various transformations and their impact
on each other and on other considered factors. They facilitate the
understanding of connections between factors and events and the
examination of their dynamics. Simulation is a process that
represents a structure and change of a system. In simulation, some
aspects of reality are duplicated or reproduced, usually within the
model. The main purpose of simulation is to discern what would
happen in the real world if certain conditions, imitated by the
model, developed.
7. Visioning
Visioning
is a popular method in studies of desirable futures and the one that
gives emphasis to values. The visioning process is based on the
assumption that images of the future lead present behaviors, guide
choices and influence decisions. Images of the future can be
positive or negative and cause different responses according to the
perceptions. A vision is usually seen as a positive, desirable image
of the future and can be described as a compelling, inspiring
statement of the desired future that the authors and those who
subscribe to the vision want to create.
There are a number of issues that need to be addressed while using
the visioning method. Vision comprises peoples values, wishes, fears
and desires. In order to make the visioning process work, it is
necessary to ensure that it is not a making of a idealistic
wish-list; that vision is an image of the future shared by a whole
community; and that the vision is translatable into reality.
8. Futures Workshops
Futures
workshops were developed by Robert Jungk in order to allow anybody
to become involved in creating their preferred future rather than
being subjected to decisions made by experts. Typical futures
workshops are very strongly action oriented. They aim, first to
imagine the desired future, and then to plan it and implement it.
Futures workshops have four distinctive phases which include:
preparation, critique, fantasy and implementation.
Another type of futures workshop is the Prospective workshop
proposed by Michel Godet as a first step for Prospective studies.
Godet believed that through immersion, the futures workshop seeks to
harness the collective thought process and apply it to strategic
action. Workshops allow participants to think about the future as a
group and collectively identify and prioritize the aims of the
organization or region. Each Prospective workshop has to be adapted
to the needs of the study. It usually has two phases: exploratory
(anticipating change) and normative (mastering change).
9. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
This
method, developed by Sohail Inayatullah, is one of the newest
developments in Futures Studies. Causal Layered Analysis focuses on
‘opening up’ the present and past to create alternative futures
rather than on developing a picture of a particular future. It is
concerned with the vertical dimension of futures studies, and the
layers of analysis. CLA is based on the assumption that the way in
which a problem is formulated changes the policy solutions and the
actors in charge of initiating transformations. The key principle of
this method is using and integrating different ways of knowing.
The application of Causal Layered Analysis has a number of benefits:
·
increases the range and richness of scenarios;
·
leads to inclusion of different ways of knowing among participants
in workshops;
·
appeals to a wider range of individuals through incorporation of
non-textual and artistic elements;
·
extends the discussion beyond the obvious to the deeper and more
marginal; and
·
leads to policy actions that can be informed by alternative layers
of analysis.
10. Back-view mirror Analysis
This
method builds upon the assumption that any future-oriented group
process has to manage peoples’ difficulties in thinking into the
future. These difficulties can arise from the fears as well as from
the lack of experience in futures thinking. Back-view mirror
analysis allows for dealing with the fears related to the future by
creating a new perspective that looks to the past instead of
starting the process in the present. The method is used to perform
qualitative analysis of the past using both quantitative and
qualitative data.
11. Futures Biographies
This
method, also called futures imagining, aims to create individual
visions, to gather peoples’ views on the future and to examine them
in the study of collective future. Peoples’ expectations and
opinions are considered as an important indication of possible goals
and possible directions that can influence their actions and in
result steer the future.
12. Monitoring
This is a
process that aims at the evaluation of events, as they occur or
during the immediate aftermath. It involves activities like
scanning, detecting, projecting, assessing, responding and tracking.
Monitoring is one of the fundamental activities performed by Futures
Studies.
13. Content Analysis
This
technique is used for the systematic and objective study of
particular aspects of various ‘messages’. Such ‘messages’ can be
found in books, journals, newspapers, private letters, publications
of political parties, reports, surveys, interviews, television,
Internet and so on. This method, in order to be reliable and valid,
needs to be performed with a high level of competency
14. Backcasting
Backcasting is a technique that often is defined as an opposite to
forecasting. It involves the identification of a particular scenario
and tracing its origins and lines of development back to the
present.
15. Relevance Tree
It is an
analytical technique that subdivides a large subject into
increasingly smaller subtopics. The relevance tree has a form of a
hierarchical structure that begins with a high level of abstraction
and moves down with greater degree of detail in the subsequent
levels of the tree. It is a powerful technique that helps to ensure
that a given problem or issue is broken into comprehensive detail
and that important connections among the elements considered are
presented in both current and potential situations.
16. Morphological Analysis
This
method is often used in conjunction with the relevance tree. It is
mainly employed for the identification of new product opportunities.
The technique involves mapping options in order to attain an overall
perspective of possible solutions. It comprises of the two main
activities: a systematic
analysis of a current and future structure of the area
including the gaps in that structure, stimulation for
creation of a new alternative,
which could fill the gaps and meet any needs.
17. Futures Wheel
This
method is a form of structured brainstorming that aims at
identifying and packaging secondary and tertiary consequences of
trends and events. A trend or event is placed in the middle of a
piece of paper and then small spokes are drawn wheel-like from the
centre. Primary impacts and consequences are written in circles of
the first ring. Then secondary consequences of each primary impact
are derived forming the second ring. This ripple effect continues in
sequential fashion until there is a clear picture of the
implications that the event or trend can effect. The futures wheel
is a very simple but powerful technique for drawing out opinions and
ideas, but is sensitive to underlying assumptions.1
Notes
1.
http://www.thefuturesacademy.ie/futures/methods
