1. What is Futures Studies?
2. Why Should We
Learn FS?
3. What is
Foresight?
4. Who is a
Futurist?
5. How to Become a
Futurist?
6. What Should Pro.
Futurists Know?
1. What is Futures Studies?
Two answers from
the 1970s are as follows. The first, from Prof Henry David in 1970
proposes that: futures research may be defined as the 'intellectual
form in which a society renders account to itself of its probable
and possible futures'.1
A more detailed
formulation was suggested by Eleonora Masini and Knut Samset in
1975. In their formulation: 'futures studies...is a field of
intellectual and political activity concerning all sectors of the
psychological, social, economic, political and cultural life, aiming
at discovering and mastering the extensions of the complex chains of
causalities, by means of conceptualizations, systematic reflections,
experimentations, anticipations and creative thinking. Futures
studies therefore constitute a natural basis for subnational,
national and international, and both interdisciplinary and
transdisciplinary activities tending to become a new forum for the
basis of political decision making'.2
For everyday use,
however, the following may be preferred. Futures studies is the
forward-looking equivalent of history. If history is concerned with
origins, roots, where, in some sense, we have collectively been;
futures studies is about goals, purposes, where we are going, how we
get there and the problems and opportunities we will encounter en
route.
FS is not about
predicting anything. If we could predict the future we would
logically read ourselves out of history as agents that create
history. What we can do is understand the nature of the near-future
context. Futurists do this by developing and applying high-quality
forward views using a range of methodologies and, of course, the
vital futures discourse (which provides much of the symbolic
underpinning for work in the not-here, not-yet, futures domain). As
noted above, the knowledge so produced is not empirical and does not
rest only upon facts. It is provisional, or interpretive knowledge
that is not right/wrong, but useful/not useful. It depends on
quality of interpretations which are critiqued, supported, amended,
decided etc through dialogue, writing, seminars etc in the futurist
community worldwide over a period of time. FS centrally depends on
active and alert community of inquiries.
The form of
knowledge that is most applicable to the future is called
'interpretive or propositional knowledge'. Hence what is at stake in
the futures domain is the usefulness of interpretations about what
the near-future looks like at any time, as well as our responses to
these interpretations. Factual, empirical and data based knowledge
about the present inform our views of the future. But knowledge
about the future per se is based on judgments and interpretations.
The latter are generated by individuals, teams, groups etc. The
validity of futures-related knowledge is subject to acceptance or
rejection within communities of enquirers over a period of time.
2. Why Should We Learn FS?
When people and
organizations are not aware of their choices they may well end up
being part of someone else's future. In order to create desirable
futures, futurists encourage others to think more carefully and plan
further ahead than before. But it is not just a case of thinking
further into the future. It is also one of thinking more richly
about what is possible and desirable. In part this involves
critiquing current ideologies, understanding cultural biases,
diagnosing the effects of particular interests and opening up
futures work to non-Western sources, languages and ways of thinking.
Most futurists
believe that the future can be shaped by the careful and responsible
exercise of human will and effort. Futurists differ in many of their
views, but most agree that individuals, organizations and cultures
that attempt to move into the future blindly are taking unnecessary
risks. So they would agree that we need to understand and apply
foresight in our private, public and professional lives. Futurists
are anti-fatalist. They seek to amplify and implement insights that
can be found in traditional sayings such as: 'look before you leap',
'forewarned is forearmed', and 'a stitch in time saves nine'.
3. What is Foresight?
In practice
futurists do not study the future as such. Rather, they help create
and explore the significance of forward views. A forward view can be
defined as a 'collective interpretive construct which provides an
evolving structural overview of the coming decades'. A 'collective
interpretative construct' means that this is quintessentially a
group process. An 'evolving structural overview' signifies that key
features of the near-future world are being scanned and interpreted
in a continuing process. Futures work is therefore both group-based
and process-orientated. Isolated 'snapshots' of change are seldom
very helpful.
Many people focus
on empirically detectable trends: such as global warming; the growth
of third world debt etc. Research at the empirical level certainly
has a place. But it should be used in the context of understanding
deeper processes of change. So a 3-level model is more useful. This
involves: empirical (real-world, measurable, trends); social actions
and responses (such as new EPA-type regulations) and worldview
shifts (post-materialism, adoption of a stewardship ethic etc). It's
at this deeper level that much of the real action lies. 'Real
action' refers to the process of de-legitimising redundant worldview
assumptions and then proposing, supporting, putting forward new ones
(much as has been done with 'Institutions of Foresight' as vital
social innovations).5
How can one scan
for new ideas and information? By being part of an active futures
community and accessing 'conversations' supported by a futures
discourse. By continual 'gift-giving' exchanges between colleagues.
By using environmental scanning procedures eg, staying open to
multiple sources of info; staying 'tuned' for subtle 'signals of
change' in a variety of domains and media: looking for surprise,
novelty. Some of the richest sources are on websites, innovative
journals such as Whole Earth and specialist journals such as Futures
or Foresight.
Are there
different kinds of foresight? Yes. We distinguish between the
following three general approaches.11
·
Pragmatic foresight. This is about doing today's business more
effectively. It is useful, but limited and conservative.
·
Progressive foresight. This links today's work with notions of
improvement such as that afforded by the 'triple bottom line'.
·
Civilization foresight. This looks ahead using a variety of futures
frameworks to consider issues of social, cultural, infrastructural
and worldview design. Its focus is on the underpinnings and
character of what might be termed 'the next level(s) of
civilization'.
In addition,
strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain
high-quality forward views and to use the insights arising in
organizationally useful ways'.9 It will be a cornerstone of
organizational success in the early 21st Century. Organizations
equipped with an effective foresight capability will be able to
understand, and respond to, an emerging pattern of threats and
opportunities in their field.
We take the view
that, in a nutshell, 'foresight refreshes strategy'. It thus brings
into play a whole series of resources, methods, options and
strategies otherwise tend to be unavailable. Strategic Foresight is
therefore highly relevant to individuals, organizations and society
across the board.
The strategy and
foresight do draw on literature and theory, but their primary focus
is on foresight implementation. The aim is to facilitate the
emergence and application of high-quality foresight in each major
sector.
The above is part
of a broader strategy to encourage wider social, cultural and
economic shifts from a society driven by the past to one that is
increasingly open to the forward view and therefore able to be
futures-responsive. The teachings in the strategy and foresight
programs assist in the creation of social foresight.
Social foresight
is the operational capacity and practice of routinely 'scanning the
future', interpreting the 'messages' it contains and progressively
incorporating these into every institution and aspect of life.
Societies without foresight tend, in Tim Flannery's words to become
'future eaters'. Those with it will consciously avoid dangers and
consciously 'steer' toward chosen ends. 10
How can social
foresight be enabled? There are five 'layers of capability': 12
- The capacity of
the human brain/mind system to engage with the 'not here' and the
'not yet';
- The enlivening
capacity of futures concepts, frameworks and understandings that
create 'futures literacy' and give rise to futures discourses;
- The
instrumental capability of futures methodologies and tools to build
on the above and to address real-world issues and problems;
- The development
of organizational 'niches' or purpose-built Institutions of
Foresight (IOFs); and
- The growth of
applied foresight across the board as an emergent social capability.
4. Who is a Futurist?
A futurist is
someone who has become familiar with the futures domain (which is a
symbolic realm of understanding). He/She understands the nature of
this knowledge (see below) and how to use it to enable others to
identify options and choices in the present. The point of studying
the future is to move away from a passive or fatalistic acceptance
of what may happen to an active and confident participation in
creating positively desired futures.
5. How to Become a Futurist?
A futurist is a
person who has achieved 'futures literacy'. That is, he/she has
explored the futures domain and become competent in its ideas and
methods. A futurist has studied the futures literature, knows how to
use some of its ideas and methods and is able to help others use
futures ideas, knowledge and methods. A futurist is likely to take
an active interest in a professional futures organization such as
the World Future Society or the World Futures Studies Federation.
He/she is likely to communicate regularly with other futurists
around the world and attend futures conferences. He/she will
actively help others to understand and respond to forward views. It
is not possible to become a futurist simply by appropriating the
name (although unfortunately some still do this as the present
time).
What advice would
be useful to those preparing for a career in futures studies? Spare
no effort in reading. Clear away the 'fog' of conventional
stereotypical thinking by being open to high quality but
non-standard sources and explanations. Enter into dialogue with
practitioners and as wide a range of 'others' as possible. Make an
effort to get to conferences etc. Realize that FS is perhaps the
meta-discipline of the early 21st Century and, while career paths
can be hard to pick, will therefore have multiple uses and
applications. Match your own inner needs/ perceptions/ journey with
the outer resources etc needed to develop and express them in
productive, futures-orientated ways. Care deeply about the future of
humanity.
What are
Futurists' Activities? Here are some examples:
·
Mastering a specific area of futures literature;
·
Contributing to the futures literature;
·
Becoming proficient in a range of futures methodologies;
·
Taking
a course in FS at a tertiary institution or via distance education;
·
Teaching others to be futurists or to develop futures skills;
·
Taking
part in futures conferences;
·
Being
actively involved in creating social innovations;
·
Helping
to further develop the field and to enhance the quality of its work;
·
Understanding the rationales for futures work and communicating
these in appropriate ways in a variety of contexts and media; and
·
Listening to 'other voices' and bringing them into the global
futures conversation.
Or, as Jim Dator
put it in 1972, 'I would think it much preferable for each futurist
to be positively engaged in furthering the techniques, methods and
theories upon which we can base a science of the future'.3
While some might debate the claim to 'science', the notion of being
positively engaged is perhaps the single most important key to being
a futurist.
6. What Should Pro. Futurists Know?
The origins,
character and contemporary expressions of the field. The uses and
limitations of the key methodologies. Ways of knowing and conceptual
frameworks appropriate to futures work. Aspects of the futures
literature. How to access key ideas and people in the field. An
overview of the knowledge base of FS. Strategies for the
implementation of futures work in a variety of contexts. A futures
code of ethics. In accordance with the highest professional
standards, they set down in other relevant disciplines and with
their own code of ethics.
It is highly
desirable that a professional degree (Masters or above) in FS be
gained in order to practice as a futurist. Where, for reasons of
personal history, geography, cultural or social limitation, a
sustained, positive and successful involvement in futures work can
be demonstrated to a group of peers, this is an alternative path to
recognition. The point here is the quality of involvement in, and
promotion of, the field. This excluded self-promotion by an
individual for his/her own personal or business interests.
A recognized
program of university studies; sustained and successful attendance
at professional courses organized, run by bona fide futures
organizations, and staffed by professional, practicing futurists; or
successful participation in a relevant distance learning program.
They should avoid
conflict with their professional ethics, ie., that are exploitive,
dishonest, unreasonably self-promoting and which, in any way, bring
the profession into disrepute. An evolving body of practice and
judgment should be developed to adjudicate particular cases (as in
conventional law).
Notes
1.
David, H. in
Challenges for the Future. Proceedings of the International Futures
Research Conference vol 4, Kodansha Ltd., Kyoto, 1970, p 102.
2.
Masini, E. &
Samset, K. Recommendations of the WFSF General Assembly. WFSF
Newsletter June 1975, p.15
3.
Dator, J. Futures
Research: a Second Look and Yet Another Look Again. Plenary address
to the 3rd WFSF Conference, Bucharest, Romania 1972.
4.
Inayatullah, S. &
Stevenson, T. 'Futures-Orientated Writing and Research', Futures
vol.30, no.1, pp.1-3, 1998.
5.
Slaughter, R. The
Foresight Principle (Praeger 1996). Also see 'Mapping the Future',
Journal of FS vol.1, no.1, pp.5-26, 1996. Tamkang Univ., Taiwan.
6.
Slaughter, R. 'The
Flight of American Super-Ego', Futures vol.33, no.10, pp.891-896,
2001.
7.
Ramos, J. Global
Challenges for Humanity: from Instrumentality to Emancipation,
Australian Foresight Institute, 2001.
8.
Wilber, K. A Brief
History of Everything, Shambhala, Boston, 1996.
9.
Slaughter, R.
Futures for the Third Millennium , Prospect Media, Sydney, 1999,
p.287
10.
Flannery, T. The
Future Eaters, Grove Press, 2002.
11.
Slaughter, R.
Futures Beyond Dystopia , RoutledgeFalmer, London, 2004, p.217
12.
ibid. p.173
