Created 3/7/2011 6:10:09 PM

As you know our scanning hits provide a basis for our scanning report (Choo, 2008). We should collect (at least) five completed "scanning hits" and turn them into a formal "scanning report" (Schultz, 2002). Once we asked ourselves: "What are five to seven trends that could change or shift our industry or business in a significant way in the next ten years?" (Conway, 2009) to develop our strategic framework.

Now, our scanning hits are not going to ratify the same things we've assumed earlier to shape our strategic framework—just barely. Instead, we should scan within sources that have nothing to do with the industry or domain we’re scanning for (Taleb, 2007). As you look at interesting sources outside of your current business, you’re keeping your business’ framework in the back of your mind, looking for potential unforeseen-until-now implications of change and impact (Smith and Saritas, 2011). You may find new challenges and opportunities that you never foresaw in your strategic framework. This is why we have the "Creating" option (a new assumption) in addition to "Confirming" and "Disconfirming" options at "Overall effect" section on our scanning forms. This is the art of foresight (Niiniluoto, 2001).

We are not going to deceive ourselves, but we want to evaluate our earlier assumptions realistically just as they are portrayed (almost optimistically) in our strategic framework. Our scanning hits should challenge our past raw assumptions. So, a reasonable degree of irrelevancy seems pretty logical.

Meanwhile, environmental scanning is a continuous activity (Jackson, 2011). It is done gradually and continuously. Please note that environmental scanning is the foundation of strategic foresight practice, especially at professional and managerial levels (Amsteus, 2011). Our assignments here may seem somehow easy to do (and even childish!), but they build what we should really accomplish as foresight practitioners in the coming future.

We are not going to change our vision and mission statements every day (Daft, 2007). Our strategies are determined and fixed, but we should design them enough flexible to get updated according to new changes in the environment, especially the market (Das, 2004).

And again, surely you've heard many times about companies who failed to survive because of their rigid-minded leaders' resistance against change (Senge, 1990). When you stick to a very solid (or an old) strategy and do not change your past policies according to new conditions and changes, there is only one fate waiting for you: Failure!

It's all about CHANGE. The periodic adjustment of the statements in our "strategic framework" depends on the frequency of change in our environment. Turbulent environments need repeated reviews more than other environments. We use our strategic framework as a complementary tool, not the foundation of our strategies. We've made our strategies clear in our vision & mission statements earlier. We just update them in a logical manner, not every minute or every day.

References:
Amsteus, M. (2011). Managerial foresight: Measurement scale and estimation. Foresight, 13(1), 58-76.
Choo, Chun Wei (2008). Scanning the Environment, University of Toronto. http://si2008.ibict.br/anais/download_anais.php?file=gecic/painel_01/Chun_Wei.pdf 
Conway, M. (2009). Doing Environmental Scanning Part 1: Focus Your Scanning. http://mareeconway.com/blog/2010/08/11/doing-environmental-scanning-part-1-focus-your-scanning/
Daft, Richard L. (2007). The Leadership Experience, 4th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Publishing, pp. 532-534.
Das, T. K. (2004). Strategy and time: Really recognizing the future. In H. Tsoukas & J. Shepherd (Eds.), Managing the future: Foresight in the knowledge economy (pp. 58-74). Malden, MA: Blackwell. http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/tkdas/publications/das_ts04ch4_strategytime_58-74.pdf
Jackson, M. (2011). Shaping Tomorrow’s Practical Foresight Guide – Chapter 4, Last revised: 14 January 2011. http://www.shapingtomorrow.com 
Niiniluoto, I. (2001). Future Studies: Science or Art?, Futures, 33, pp. 371-377.
Senge, P. M. (1990). The fifth discipline. New York: Bantam Doubleday Dell Publishing Group. p.20.
Schultz, W. (2002). Environmental Scanning: A Holistic Approach. http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/prez/holescan/sld001.htm
Smith, J. E. and Saritas, O. (2011). Science and technology foresight baker’s dozen, Foresight, Vol. 13, No. 2 2011, pp. 79-96.
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. http://www.amazon.co.uk/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/0713999950