By: Alireza Hejazi

You may know how effectively an intelligence analysis can be done even easier than what we had perceived before. This is due to new softwares coming into the market each day. For instance, SEAS (Structured Evidential Argumentation System http://www.ai.sri.com/~seas/index.html) is a software tool developed for intelligence analysts that records analytic reasoning and methods and supports collaborative analysis across contemporary and historical situations and analysts and has broad applicability beyond intelligence analysis.

As you know, one of the greatest benefits of using SEAS and other similar softwares is improved decision making in a complex and uncertain environment. There is noting wrong with these softwares, but they can not guarantee reducing our uncertainties. In fact, as the futurists it is our duty to do it. Besides, we are still occupied with the growing problem of gathering true evidence for our theories. How can we simultaneously reduce our uncertainties and get sure about the authenticity of evidence we gather up?

You know, these are key factors. Perhaps we prepare good evidence, but we may not be certain about their accuracy (evidence offered for Iraq's WMD can be a good example, as there was not any kind of WMD after US-led coalition forces arrived in Baghdad.). On the other hand, we may get sure with our evidence, but different uncertainties come into the scene and receiving assured results from intelligence analysis becomes difficult again (regardless of political or economical incentives and benefits that led coalition forces to occupy Iraq, uncertainties regarding the compensating power of Iraq's oil and gas revenues for war and rebuilding costs made it hard to justify the war at least in the short run.)

I'm not talking just about political intelligence analysis leading us into disastrous wars or great bargains. I'm pointing to the limitations of our own understanding not the software's. This is a problem of mindware not the software. Understanding and analyzing complex systems or environments and meanwhile bringing different variables into account is really an attractive job and I love it. In fact, it shapes what is called "Fate" by uninformed people. The fate of people, organizations, countries, continents and even the world depends on the comprehensiveness of our understanding about future situations and ways we follow to make the most use of political, economical and social conditions. This is a real Futures Studies endeavor.

Anyway, I think a simple form of SEAS is the same thing that can be found now in www.shapingtomorrow.com and insights offered by its users. I know that SEAS has more things than shapingtomorrow's analyzing system and is more systematic and academic designed for especial analyzing tasks and missions.

By the way, have you seen EUGene? EUGene http://www.eugenesoftware.org/  is a program designed primarily for political scientists.  It has 2 purposes.  First, EUGene generates data for variables used to test Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and colleagues’ version of an expected utility theory of war and dispute initiation. Second, EUGene serves as a data management tool for creating data sets for use in the quantitative analysis of international relations. I don't know how similar these softwares can be, but I can guess that similar algorithms are used in modeling such softwares. Surely, new softwares are on the way and we should remain cool to see upgraded versions of analyzing systems and softwares amazing us with their new capabilities.