We can make a number of key distinctions between different types
of Foresight activity.
First, between “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches.
Top-down approaches are more like conventional futures
studies, in that they place little stress on interaction: even
where they draw on inputs from a wide range of sources, these
are mainly processed by a small expert group. This group elicits
inputs of evidence and views from the wider community, perhaps
using methods such as Delphi questionnaires, public meetings and
teach-ins, and calling expert witnesses to give seminars.
Bottom-up exercises place high stress on interaction,
gathering opinions and information from a wide range of sources,
and in principle securing more legitimacy for, “ownership” of,
and networks established around the activity. They may solicit
inputs about views about the design, orientation, content or
dissemination of the Foresight activity. Methods to achieve this
include discussions and presentations (including those on
Internet websites). Methods also have to be employed to
integrate such inputs; most commonly panels or specialist teams
are tasked with this.
Second, Foresight activities vary in their emphasis on products
or processes. Foresight activities that emphasize Formal
Products stress the achievement of such outputs as priority
lists, reports, etc. Such products may be highly tied to
specific decisions (with practical, concrete, action-oriented
outputs such as checklists) or more aimed at providing
background intelligence to inform policymaking or public opinion
more generally. Foresight activities that emphasize Processes
often focus on network building, development of Foresight
capabilities, “embedding” Foresight into organizations and wide
constituencies of stakeholders. With the ultimate objective of
increasing social preparedness to anticipate, respond to, and
shape change, experts and stakeholders are encouraged to
exchange opinion, knowledge and strategic thinking. Product and
process orientations can reinforce each other: networking can
provide better products; product-based activity is a good basis
for network building.
Notes:
Miles, Ian & Keenan, Michael. “Handbook of Knowledge Society
Foresight”, PREST, October 2002, p. 39
