There are many different ways to conduct Foresight exercises.
This implies a number of strategic decision points in the design
and delivery of Foresight. It is important to recognize these
choices from the outset through a process we have called
scoping. Why is scoping necessary?
To review and perhaps pilot foresight options – there are
many different ways to conduct Foresight and setting out
some of these options can be useful. In some instances, for
example, where Foresight has not been used before, it may be
worth piloting some of the possible methods.
To assess current and past arrangements – what is done
already and what are its strengths and shortcomings?
To assess requirements against capabilities – Foresight
exercises can sometimes be resource-intensive, in terms of
human, social and financial capital. Not all Foresight
approaches are suited to all situations. Therefore, it is
necessary to formulate a Foresight approach that takes
account of existing opportunities and limitations.
To establish the need for any new structures or arrangements
that will have to be put in place – existing structures
and/or routines may not be readily adapted to the
participatory and creative environments demanded by
Foresight. In such circumstances, new arrangements may need
to be put in place.
To generate a flexible (responsive) blueprint for the
exercise that uses the most appropriate methods – it is
important for scoping to lead to an exercise plan that is
responsive to changing conditions. Indeed, scoping should
broaden options rather than constrain, and should engender
an understanding of interdependencies between strategic
choices.
To make the case for Foresight – a well-written report that
demonstrates an understanding of Foresight and sets out the
various options can be a powerful tool for convincing others
of the merits (and limitations) of undertaking an exercise.
Moreover, because scoping is a process, it has the potential
to accommodate participation from the outset, thereby
engendering ownership of Foresight early on.
Notes:
Miles, Ian & Keenan, Michael. “Handbook of Knowledge Society
Foresight”, PREST, October 2002, p. 45-46
