Created 29/01/2012 10:37:05 AM

Inayatullah (2004) has offered Causal layered analysis (CLA) as a new research theory and method. As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures.

Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview, and myth/metaphor. The first level is the litany — the official unquestioned view of reality. The second level is the social causation level, the systemic perspective. The third level is the discourse/worldview. The fourth level is the myth/metaphor, the unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue.

Jim Dator (2002) has suggested: “Inayatullah’s ‘Causal Layered Analysis’ is the first major new futures theory and method since Delphi, almost forty years ago.”. So it cannot be the last one. I hope to complete my Futures Metacognition Theory and offer it as a new method in studying the future in the coming years after finalizing it with my dear professor.  

It seems that about 30% of articles that have been written in recent years around futures methodologies (especially in the Journal of Futures Studies) are based on CLA. CLA approach:

1. Constructs problems through context.

2. Sees context at multiple levels.

3. These levels are generally the litany; the social/economic/technological; the worldview/discourse, and the myth/metaphor (with variations).

4. The challenge is to move and down multiple layers, rethinking the implied future at each level.

5. Depth emerges, allowing solutions that are longer lasting, that do not reinscribe the present.

6. Thus, CLA allows authentic alternative scenarios and preferred futures to emerge. 

As we see, CLA is a context-based approach. A problem with this approach is our personal translation of different layers of a definite context. I believe in alternative futures, but what we usually find here are similar to personal (defined) futures rather than (real) alternative ones.

Can we get really sure with the correctness of our translations? My translation of social problems I see in my society can be different from my friend’s. So we may receive different analyses by applying CLA method in our studies. How can we get similar analyses by different users who are using CLA in studying an issue under similar conditions?    

References:

Dator, J. (2002). Theories, Methods and Approaches to Teaching Futures Studies: A backward glance, Keynote speech, Tamkang University International Conference on Teaching Futures Studies, November 5–7, 2002.

Inayatullah, S. (2004). The causal layered analysis reader: Theory and case studies of an integrative and transformative methodology. Tamsui, Taiwan: Tamkang.