Created 30/10/2011 12:15:03 AM

Anyone can make a forecast, sketch out a handful of scenarios, argue for what ought to be done, and identify some new trend (Marien, 2002). But who can offer a “high quality” forecast? Please remember that by “high quality forecasting”, I mean a kind of forecast that is equipped with the optimum use of forecasting tools, methods and models. In my point of view, a “high quality” forecast is not an exact forecast according to what has been or will be appeared as true, but a kind of pre-knowledge that prepares us for alternative futures in better ways (Gordon, 2008).

There are many good lessons that we can learn from our studies and reading materials including Adam Gordon’s Future Savvy. He has shared his personal experience of forecasting with us. It seems that Gordon has sent us a message in the bottle and fortunately we’ve gotten it in good shape as the students of Strategic Foresight.

The reality is that forecasting field is not regulated. Meanwhile, there is also no accepted conceptual framework, accepted methods, agreed professional standards, or guidelines for application to policy or business decision making.

A great volume of forecasting profession is related to change, but the change is a competitive matter. This is because success always implies congruence between decisions and the world in which those decisions play out. To be competitive we must be reading and listening to forecasts and factoring them into our world view and our plans.  

A golden question is: “How much of any forecast can we reliably depend on?” On the face of it, any one prediction is as good as the next—certainly if you believe the forecasters’ own claims to excellence. There’s much at stake. Good quality forecasts are clearly valuable beyond measure, but the question in every case is: Is this a good forecast?

The million-dollar question is: How? Is there a way to weigh the utility in a forecast so that we can know whether it is something to note or to ignore? What are the markers for this? Is such a thing even possible, or to what extent or under what conditions is it possible?

We can learn that the most useful way, for forecast assessment, is to sort it by stated or implied purpose. Understanding the forecast “return on investment” (ROI) will also give us an important vantage point in assessing the merits of a forecast.

The sobering reality is that even the best “neutral” foresight work in the best institutions also often turns out quite wrong. Forecasting depends somehow on personal foresight capabilities. For instance, Henry Ford was able to foresee a mass market for automobiles before anyone else when he formed his motor company in 1903.

In a famous case in the 1960s, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew saw emerging conditions that would allow Singapore to become a high-technology center of trade and industry in Asia. As a result, he set in motion policies that turned the country from a colonial swamp into one of the highest average-income cities in the world.

References:

Gordon, A. (2008). Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change. NY: AMACOM.

Marien, M. (2002). Futures studies in the 21st Century: a reality-based view, Futures 34, pp. 261–281.