By: Alireza Hejazi

Various methods futures studies and foresight have been used in different sectors of the society, but some sectors were pioneers in applying such methods in 20^th century. This brief dialogue aims to provide background knowledge in this regard and in turn aids the historical assessment of futures/foresight methods. It is important to note that in practice, some methods are used in particular sectors.

McHale and McHale (1975) in their international survey of futurists identified more than 17 methodological approaches, often used in conjunction with each other. These include extrapolation techniques using times series data, models, brainstorming, scenarios writing, simulation, historical analogy, Delphi techniques, cross-impact analysis, causal modeling, relevance trees, gaming and contextual mapping. 

In terms of national foresight exercises, 6 common methods are identified: projection, relevance tree, morphology, critical technologies, Delphi, and Scenario (Nagel and Wellington, 2000).

Gould (Gould, 2009) reminds us that through the use of applied futures studies methods – community visioning that includes these methods has the potential to have a significant positive personal and community impact in terms of:

·   Improving the levels of critical thinking in communities;

·   Shifting attitudes towards the concept of the future ;

·   Enhancing levels of community cohesion; and

·   Increasing levels of agency and a sense of empowerment for the communities

·   Preferred futures.

For instance, visualization as the individual act of creating a compelling image of some future process, possibility or event has particular uses in health sector (healing and in recovery from illnesses such as cancer) (Slaughter, 1996).  

What other impacts can you consider?

In addition to mentioned impacts, a process of improvement has been started for FS methods. As a result of the workshops on methodologies and the subsequent discussion at the first Informan Conference in March 2000, a number of suggestions were made on improvements and areas of attention in the forecasting methods used in Foresight. These are groups into 4 points: 

• Increasing the range of inputs considered

• Making use of existing resources

• Looking for discontinuities in existing trends

• Building network of expertise

Further details on these issues can be found in a report on “Manufacturing Foresight Methodologies” which are the output from March 2000 Informan Conference.

Could you please imagine more improvements in the coming years?

 

References:

Gould, Steve (2009). Learning from the Politics of Futures, Journal of Futures Studies, May 2009, 13(4): 105 – 122.

McHale, J. and McHale, M.C. (1975).  Futures Studies: An International Survey, New York: United Nations Institute for Training and Research.

Nagel, R.N., and Wellington, J. (2000). Proceedings of the IMS Vision 2020 Forum, IMS International.

Slaughter, R.A. (1996). Knowledge Base Of Futures Studies, The Futures Study Centre, Australia.