Created 15/01/2012 10:22:15 AM

I usually use Jackson’s (2005) model of Strategic Futures Planning in my futures projects. There are four stages to futures projects: Scoping, Analysis, Review, Launch and follow-through. Let me explain more.

Scoping: First of all, we should define clearly the question we are seeking to answer. This is a good way to check that the project’s outputs will be useful and will reduce the risk of project creep. I try to agree with the stakeholders what policies or strategies the work will inform. It is essential to consider what I might influence so that my work answers the right questions and provides the right type of information to be useful to taking decisions. In this stage, I decide which areas of science are most relevant. If I’m doing IT futures, I need to consider which areas of science will affect developments in the area I’m examining.

Analysis: I develop a framework into which I can place the information I collect. In this sense I prefer to be flexible and willing to change focus as my evidence base grows. Then I use existing material where possible. I keep an eye on experts’ input and note sources of information as I build it into my analysis. I make sure that I’ve allowed time for analysis once I had collected the information. I do my best to create opportunities to explore the material I’ve gathered up. I also build in a mechanism to weigh and validate the information I’ve collected for the project.

Review: Even though we will have developed our visions and should have good underpinning information as the basis for the visions, we need to explore them with the stakeholders and experts. This will allow all to develop a common understanding as the evidence is tested and the vision is developed. We should use the results of this review to produce our final findings and present the findings to our stakeholders to encourage action.

Launch and follow-through: In this stage, we should involve the right people. Drawing out the key messages from futures work in a way that will lead to action is an art. I usually start with an outline for the content, and make sure it reflects the original questions I set, or, where I have developed the questions. We need to develop a suite of documents to suit the stakeholders’ needs. Usually we will need at least: a one-or two-page executive summary; an overview which draws together all of our work; and the more detailed underpinning papers. We should set aside time to do this and refine it. It is often in the process of writing the final documents that some of the key findings are made.

I always make sure that I've included the context and evidence to support my findings. In fact, it’s the key to a successful futuring job. I’ve learned to test my works on people outside the defined project. It always gives me new knowledge and experience.

If we have been involved in the project throughout, there is a risk that we have made too many assumptions so those new to the work will not accept it. In this sense, we should refine our work repeatedly.

Reference:

Jackson, A. (2005). Strategic Futures Planning: Suggestions for Success, www.foresight.gov.uk