Created 11/12/2011 8:31:23 PM

Well, we know that the word “scenario” is derived from the Latin scaena, meaning scene. The term was originally used in the context of such performing arts as theatre and film. Kahn (Ringland, 1998) adopted the term because of its emphasis on storytelling. So there is an inherent scenery attribute of the futures we may face with in scenarios.

Regardless of distinctions between “normative” and “descriptive” scenarios, Sparrow (2002) argues that planners advising decision makers use an interpretation, regarding scenarios as more exploratory so that a scenario is less a strategy and more a coherently structured speculation.

However, to explore the relationship between exploratory and pre-policy scenarios, we should address the macro characteristics apply to scenarios. They are the “why?” “how?” and “what?” of a scenario study: its goals, the design of the process, and the scenario contents.

In this sense, the main function of exploratory scenarios that pursue the goal of “exploration” may be defined within a “process – product” framework. Meanwhile, the role of values in pre-policy scenarios is “descriptive” that can be also seen in exploratory scenarios. The subject areas that can be covered are “issue-based, area based and institutional based” and more importantly, the nature of change that is addressed in both of exploratory and pre-policy scenarios is “evolutionary” (Ringland, 1998).

People usually call qualitative scenarios “the intuition”, and quantitative scenarios “the analysis”. We know that people have usually a surficial understanding of the scenarios. Some might say that all scenarios are normative in that they reflect interpretations, values, and the interests of those involved in the scenario exercise. It is nevertheless useful to distinguish between descriptive scenarios and those which are explicitly normative.

Royal Dutch Shell’s 2001 global scenarios entitled Business Class and Prism, for example, outline two possible futures without indications of desirability (Shell International, 2002). In contrast we can refer to the “Balanced Growth” scenario in The Netherlands in Triplicate study (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, 1992), as normative because the explicit aim is to show, given certain conditions, that economic growth can go hand in hand with environmental protection.      

References:

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (1992), The Netherlands in Triplicate: A Scenario Study of the Dutch Economy (in Dutch), SDU Uitgeverij, The Hague.

Ringland, G. (1998), Scenario Planning, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.

Shell International (2002), People and Connections: Global Scenarios to 2020 – Public Summary, London.

Sparrow, O. (2000), “Making Use of Scenarios – From the Vague to the Concrete”, Scenario & Strategy Planning, 2(5), 18-21.